The recent ½Û×ÓÊÓƵ GLP Index predicts an overall growth in demand for legal services in 2024 compared to 2023. Although not all areas of law will experience the expected growth, the index indicates strong growth across property, immigration, restructuring, and insolvency law. The demand for competition, plus risk and compliance law has flattened, and some practice areas are experiencing a decline in demand.
½Û×ÓÊÓƵ looked at commentary and insights for all 12 law practice areas to help the profession plan for 2024 and beyond.
This article will look at the most significant growth areas and their trends.
Commercial lawyers work across everything from operations to supply chain logistics, product inception and creation, and business development. To measure demand for commercial lawyers, the GLP Index research team included a broader range of metrics that impact trade and commerce more, since measuring demand based on specific tasks could be misleading.
Looking back, the index revealed the demand for commercial lawyers rose in 2017 (+2%) and 2018 (+4%), respectively. However, Brexit and the pandemic resulted in a decline in 2019 and 2020 of -2% and -3% respectively. We needn't think further than the plethora of supply chain and other business issues to understand why.
As the pandemic eased and the lockdowns ended, the practice area saw a massive spike in demand, growing +12% in 2021 compared to 2020. However, the political and economic events of 2022 resulted in subdued growth of only +1%.
The good news is the index predicts a +4% increase in demand in 2023 to continue into 2024, with another +4% growth forecast for 2024.
Download the ½Û×ÓÊÓƵ GLP Index 2024
What is driving the growth?
Digging into key growth drivers, the GLP Index team saw substantial trade import and export numbers, plus an increase in inward and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) positions.
Commercial law workloads are often closely linked to the sales and distribution functions. Annual ONS data for 2022 shows import and export numbers rose significantly compared to previous years.
The values for both outward and inward FDI earnings also increased in 2021 compared to 2020.
These findings show some reasons why the GLP Index predicts an increase in demand for commercial lawyers in 2024.
View commercial law practice notes, precedents and news articles
It shouldn't be surprising this practice area of the law is predicted to grow in 2024. Turbulent economic and political events have taken their toll on many businesses, generating plenty of work for restructuring and insolvency lawyers.
Restructuring and insolvency work plummeted during the lockdown, falling by -18% in 2020 and again by -12% in 2021. However, it increased by +9% in 2022 and +2% in 2023.
To measure the demand for restructuring and insolvency lawyers, the GLP looked at a broad range of data points, including company insolvencies, compulsory liquidations, director disqualifications, individual bankruptcies, and many more.
The 2022 and 2023 growth in demand for this practice area was primarily due to a rise in company insolvencies, which skyrocketed in 2022. In 2022, 22,109 companies registered for insolvency. This is the highest number since 2009 and is 57% higher than 2021's 14,059.
The latest figures for 2023 show 55% more (12,166) new company insolvencies compared to the same period in 2022.
Based on these figures, the GLP Index team predicts a +6% increase in demand for restructuring and insolvency work in 2024.
View restructuring and insolvency law practice notes, precedents and news articles
The GLP Index predicts a growth of +3% for family lawyers in 2024. The index found that 2024 is likely to follow the same trajectory of the steady increase in demand since the pandemic.
The GLP Index team looked at many factors, including dissolution of marriage applications, financial remedy cases and private children disputes, to predict whether family law will grow, decline, or stay the same in 2024.
The team found a +2% and +4% increase in demand for 2022 and 2023, which could be attributed to a rise in financial remedy cases and private disputes involving children. The number of financial remedy cases dropped noticeably in 2022, while the number of private disputes involving children stayed relatively the same as in previous years. However, the latest 2023 figures show a sharp increase.
The dissolution of marriage applications rose to 121,182 in 2022, up from 108,248 in 2021. Although divorce is a mainly automated process, with online applications and most lawyers charging flat fees, the increase could mean a rise in financial remedy and private dispute cases in the coming months.
View family law practice notes, precedents and news articles
For more insight on what could be driving growth in this practice area, Geraldine Morris, head of family law at ½Û×ÓÊÓƵ, said:
"Reported cases frequently have an international aspect, with England and Wales often the preferred jurisdiction for a financially weaker spouse or the super-wealthy."
She also pointed out that since 31 January 2023, legal professionals must use the MyHMCTS portal to reduce the current backlog. Lawyers must use the portal for financial applications that fall within the pilot scheme under the Family Procedure Rules 2010.
Read the full Gross Legal Product Index free of charge
To predict what to expect for the 2024 property market in England and Wales, the GLP Index team looked at everything from house building data, Help to Buy schemes, mortgage lending statistics, planning applications, and stamp duty taxes.
The index showed that the demand for property lawyers and conveyancers dropped notably by -12% in 2020 compared to 2019. However, the demand has increased significantly since then.
The GLP Index predicted a +7% increase in demand for 2023 and, based on the latest and historical data, predicts a further +7% increase in growth for 2024.
The index found one of the biggest drivers for growth in this sector is the increase in the total annual number of dwellings completed in the UK. The number rose by +9% from 174,930 in 2021 to 191,010 in 2022.
View property law practice notes, precedents and news articles
Like the property law sector, the GLP Index predicts a growth of +7% in 2024 for lawyers working in immigration law - continuing the same high growth trajectory seen in 2022 (+8%) and 2021 (+8%).
This is excellent news for immigration lawyers after a few tough years leading up to the pandemic. The pandemic further escalating this trend. During the lockdown, the number of visa applications plummeted, and getting applications granted became a drawn-out process.
Fortunately, the practice area has been steadily rising since then.
From a wide range of data points, the index concluded the growth can be attributed to increased work and student visas alongside settlement and citizenship applications.
The total number of work visas issued in 2022 (423k) has almost doubled compared to 2021 (239k). Student visas increased dramatically from 435k to 626k, and citizen applications rose by +6% from 179k to 190k. This increase in numbers contributes to a rise in demand for immigration lawyers.
View immigration law practice notes, precedents and news articles
Other areas, such as private client and tax law, are predicted to grow in 2024. See the full GLP Index report for more information on growth in these practice areas.
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